Kwara’s Otoge Dilemma : The Revolution That Ate Its Children
By Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim, Public Affairs Analyst, writing from Kano, Nigeria. (Political Opinion)
In Kwara, Otoge meant “Enough is Enough”, and in 2019 it was not a slogan whispered in rooms but a thunder shouted in markets, mosques, motor parks and polling units, a thunder that ended a dynasty that many thought could never fall; and now, in 2027, that same thunder is rolling back over the same land, with the same mouths, the same hands, and the same anger, except that this time it may not be aimed at Saraki, but at the very man who rode it to power, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq himself.
- THE UPPER HAND — REVERSED
Kwara 2027 is not an election, it is a succession war, and it is the most brutal in the entire North Central, because this is not PDP fighting APC, this is APC fighting APC, brother fighting brother, photograph fighting photograph, and loyalty fighting memory.
Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, a man who sits at the table where governors decide the fate of the federation, is finishing his second term in May 2027, and he wants his Speaker, Yakubu Danladi-Salihu, to succeed him — and on paper, he got his wish, because Danladi scored 94,990 votes in the May 22 APC governorship primary to defeat Ambassador Yahaya Seriki who scored 41,700, with Bashir Bolarinwa trailing at 22,118, in a primary supervised by the Obanikoro committee and announced at Banquet Hall.
On paper, that is victory, clean, overwhelming, unanswerable. On ground, that is where the trouble started, because the man who lost the primary did not go home to lick his wounds, he did not go to Abuja to beg, he did not retire to Ilorin to write memoirs — he went to war, and he took his structure, his anger, and his own interpretation of Otoge with him.
- GOVERNOR VS HIS OWN SENATOR
Senator Saliu Mustapha, of Kwara Central, wanted the governorship, he fought for it, he lost the primary, he lost the senatorial ticket, and then, in August, in a move that shook Government House to its foundations, he defected to the PDP, not quietly, not apologetically, but with the confidence of a man who believes the ground has already shifted beneath his opponent’s feet.
And now INEC’s final list has produced the cruellest ballot in Kwara’s political history, a ballot that reads like a tragedy written by the ancestors themselves: AbdulRazaq vs Mustapha — for Kwara Central Senate — Governor vs his own senator, in the same district, on the same ballot, with the same voters who once clapped for both of them standing together in 2019 now forced to choose which half of that old photograph they still believe in.
Mustapha himself framed it not as betrayal but as recalibration, not as desertion but as duty, when he said, in words that Ilorin has not stopped repeating: “I did not abandon the APC. I have left the APC with a collective understanding. I’m representing the group in PDP so as to reset what AbdulRazaq thinks he wants to do” — and then he delivered the boast that still echoes in every tea joint from Gambari to Offa: “I will have won the election 12 o’clock before 1 o’clock.”
Bite: In Kwara, the governor is no longer fighting the opposition, he is fighting his own photograph — the one taken with Mustapha in 2019, when they both shouted Otoge together, when they both promised that never again would one family own Kwara, when they both swore that the people, not the palace, would decide — and now that photograph has split in two, and each half is campaigning against the other.
- THE BLEEDING — FROM THE GOVERNOR’S OWN WARD
Defections are now bleeding the APC, not from the edges, not from the opposition’s strongholds, but from inside the governor’s own house, from the very wards that should have been his firewall, and when blood comes from inside the house, you do not call a doctor, you call a priest, because something sacred has already broken.
On September 8, hundreds defected from AbdulRazaq’s own political ward to the PDP, citing “dissatisfaction, direction of governance”, words that sound polite on paper but mean, in Ilorin politics, that the people who carried your poster in the sun have decided that the sun was not worth it.
Same day, the APC structure in Shawo Central Ward, Offa — base of Deputy Senate Leader Lola Ashiru — collapsed to the PDP, pledging loyalty to Saraki, a name that was supposed to have been buried in 2019 but keeps rising, like a river that refuses to stay dammed.
And in Offa again, on October 17, AAGIL — APC Advocates for Good Governance — led by Ahmed Kola Akorede defected to the PDP, accusing AbdulRazaq of “centralising power, imposing candidates, abandoning Otoge ideals”, saying that 2019 Otoge promised inclusion but marginalised its foot soldiers, that the revolution promised bread for all but served the feast to a few, and that the foot soldiers who knocked on doors in the rain have been left standing in the rain while others eat inside.
Bite: When the foundation leaves the house, you do not need an earthquake. The house falls by itself, slowly, quietly, brick by brick, while the landlord is still inside boasting that the roof is intact.
- THE ANECDOTE — TWO GAMBARI, TWO KWARA
In Gambari Ward 1, Ilorin East — Mustapha’s own ward — his own councillor, Ibrahim Salah, gathered 51 ward chairmen to dismiss Mustapha’s defection as “political tourism”, to pass a vote of confidence in AbdulRazaq, to say, in effect: “We don’t leave a party that gave us visible dividends”, and on the surface, that looks like loyalty, it looks like strength, it looks like the governor still has men who will stand.
But the defectors in the governor’s ward replied with the line that should worry Government House most, the line that should keep the governor awake at night, the line that no press release can answer: “Dividends visible in Ilorin only, not in our stomach.”
That is Kwara in two sentences. One Kwara sees roads, flyovers, renovated schools, streetlights, and says, “Look, he has worked.” The other Kwara sees hunger, sees a market woman who cannot sell, sees a graduate who cannot find work, sees a farmer who cannot move his yam, and says, “Look, we are still hungry.” Both are telling the truth. Both are Kwara. And in 2027, both will vote.
Upper hand?
On paper, APC holds Government House. On ground, Saraki’s PDP is collecting APC’s foundations — governor’s ward, senator’s ward, Offa, Gambari — brick by brick, ward by ward, like a man quietly dismantling a house while the owner is still sleeping inside it.
And Saraki’s man is now waiting, patiently, silently, without shouting: Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu Agaka, Daniyan of Ilorin, PDP governorship candidate, consensus choice after Saraki rallied Prof. Ali Ahmad, Sharafadeen Ibiwoye, Ladi Hassan and Omar Gambari to step down — vs Danladi — and Kawu is not shouting, he is not boasting, he is not promising heaven, he is watching, and in Kwara, the man who watches while others bleed is often the man who wins, because while others are busy tearing each other apart, he is busy gathering the pieces.
- THE SUSPENSE: THREE POLICE ON ONE EMIR’S ROAD?
Otoge means “Enough is Enough” — in 2019 it ended the Saraki dynasty, in 2027 Otoge may end the AbdulRazaq dynasty, using his own people, his own wards, his own senators, his own foot soldiers, and the irony is so sharp it could cut a throat, because the revolution has come home to eat its own children.
Will Ilorin have AbdulRazaq Police, Mustapha Police, Saraki Police — three checkpoints on the same Emir’s road, three flags on the same street, three crowds shouting three different Otoges at the same junction, while the Emir watches from his palace and wonders which Kwara is his?
If the boy who carried your poster in 2019 is the same boy carrying another man’s poster in 2027, whose revolution was it? If the woman who cooked for your campaign in 2019 is now cooking for your opponent in 2027, whose hunger did you feed? If the ward chairman who swore loyalty to you in the morning defects to PDP in the evening, whose loyalty did you ever own?
Defections are now both ways. Mustapha to PDP. Ward chairmen say no. AAGIL to PDP. Elders say Danladi won fairly. The question is no longer who defects. The question is: who is left to defend the house? Who is left to lock the gate? Who is left to say, when the wind blows, “This house still stands”?
Upper hand?
Yes — Government House, yes. Governors’ Forum chair, yes. 94,990 votes, yes. Power, yes. Structure, yes. Incumbency, yes.
But legitimacy is a different currency. And in Kwara, legitimacy is not paid for in votes announced at Banquet Hall, it is paid for in loyalty, in stomachs filled, in promises kept, in foot soldiers remembered, in wards not forgotten, and if that currency runs out, even Government House becomes just a building, beautiful on the outside, empty on the inside.
AbdulRazaq may yet have Danladi as successor. The question is whether he will have a party left to hand him over to — or only a Government House left to lock behind him, with the keys rattling in his hand, while outside, the crowd that once shouted Otoge for him is now shouting Otoge against him.
Kwara shouted Otoge in the day. It whispers Otoge at night. And in 2027, it will vote in the daylight to decide which Otoge was real — the one that ended Saraki, or the one that is now ending AbdulRazaq.
FOOTNOTE:
This report is based on public statements, INEC publications, party statements, and press reports available as at November 2026. Where figures differ between community claims and official results, both are stated where relevant. Anecdotes are field notes, not official statistics. Allegations of imposition and centralisation are as stated by the defectors.
Any candidate or party mentioned is entitled to reply.
SOURCES FOR CLARITY:
- APC Primary: Danladi-Salihu 94,990 votes, 22 May 2026, Obanikoro committee; Seriki 41,700, Bolarinwa 22,118.
- Mustapha Defection: Left APC August 2026 after losing governorship primary and senatorial ticket, joined PDP, got waiver and PDP Kwara Central ticket.
- INEC Final List: AbdulRazaq (APC) vs Mustapha (PDP) for Kwara Central Senate; Danladi (APC) vs Kawu Agaka (PDP) for governorship.
- Gambari Ward 1: Councillor Ibrahim Salah + 51 ward chairmen dismissed Mustapha defection as “political tourism”, passed vote of confidence in AbdulRazaq.
- Offa Defections: September 8 — Governor’s ward + Shawo Central Ward to PDP; October 17 — AAGIL led by Ahmed Kola Akorede to PDP, citing centralisation and abandonment of Otoge ideals.
- PDP Candidate: Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu Agaka, consensus candidate after Saraki consultations, polled 98,998 votes at PDP primary per monitoring team.
Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim | Public Affairs Analyst, Kano, Nigeria