By Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim | Public Affairs Analyst, Kano (Opinion)
Kaduna has never been a mere state. It is an idea, a laboratory, a battlefield where Nigeria’s national politics is first tested.
As INEC’s whistle blew on August 19 (Presidential/National Assembly) and September 19 (Governorship), Kaduna did not just start campaigning, it exploded.
With 18 parties on the ballot and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu choosing Kaduna for his national flag-off on October 24, 2026, the message is clear: Whoever wins Kaduna, wins the narrative of the North.
THE UBA SANI PHENOMENON: FROM PROTEGE TO POWER BROKER
Three years ago, Uba Sani was dismissed by some analysts as a placeholder. Today, he is perhaps one of the most tactically astute governors in the North-West.
His first masterstroke was emotional intelligence. Where his predecessor’s administration was known for tough urban renewal policies and controversial reforms including market demolitions and teacher assessments, Uba Sani adopted a reconciliatory approach. He visited communities in Southern Kaduna including Kaura and Jema’a and restored engagement with traditional rulers. That approach shifted perceptions.
His second masterstroke is the Jerry Adams Gambit. By nominating a Christian technocrat, Jerry Adams (Chairman KADIRS), as running mate, he has altered the state’s political balancing.
In a state where religion plays a strong role in voting patterns, this is seen by analysts as strategic rebalancing. Many voters in Southern Kaduna who felt politically distant now have a reason to look at APC again.
His third masterstroke is Operation Bring Them Home. The return of prominent political figures including Bashir Saidu, Jafaru Sani, Senators Abdu Kwari, Shehu Sani, and Suleiman Hunkuyi is viewed as consolidation.
And the defection of Senator Sunday Marshall Katung from PDP is considered significant. Katung was a strong pillar for PDP in Southern Kaduna. His defection means APC now has stronger presence in Kajuru and Kachia.
Uba Sani’s target of delivering 2 million votes for Tinubu may sound ambitious, but his supporters point to infrastructure optics: Kaduna Light Rail revival, Abuja-Kaduna-Kano dualization, and the Kaduna-Birnin Gwari road project are now being projected as federal presence in Kaduna. In politics, optics matter.
THE OPPOSITION: ADC AND PDP – WOUNDED BUT NOT DEAD
The opposition story is a tale of ambition and internal cracks.
ADC under Isah Ashiru wanted to be the grand coalition. Its supporters envisioned a broad alliance with Atiku Abubakar and other key northern figures. There were speculations that former Governor Nasir El-Rufai would play a strategic role in the opposition coalition.
What affected it? The classic post-primary disagreements. After ADC primaries, some aspirants who lost tickets reportedly returned to APC.
This has affected ADC’s momentum. Ashiru remains a resilient fighter — a man who has contested since 2019 — but resilience without a unified structure is a major challenge.
PDP under its current leadership is playing the long game. Its leaders argue that while APC dominates billboards, PDP retains strong grassroots structures. “They have Ahmadu Bello Way, we have the villages,” one PDP youth leader told me in Zaria. They point to ward-level structures in Igabi, Makarfi, and parts of Kaduna North.
Both ADC and PDP have also pointed to recent legal challenges in Kafanchan, where some of their LGA chairmen were remanded over alleged political violence. They have expressed concerns about what they perceive as uneven application of justice, a perception that has generated political debate in Southern Kaduna.
THE EL-RUFAI FACTOR – THE FORMER GOVERNOR STILL IN CONVERSATION
No one can write Kaduna politics without a chapter on Malam Nasir El-Rufai. Reports indicate he has been facing legal issues since February 2026 over allegations related to his tenure, matters that are currently before the court.
He is physically absent from the campaign trail but remains a subject of political discussion.
For the APC in Kaduna, his absence has reduced internal contestation. For the ADC, his name still resonates among supporters, with “Free El-Rufai” sentiments heard in parts of Malali and Barnawa.
Whether his current legal situation will generate sympathy or affect APC’s fortunes in Kaduna remains to be seen. That is the major question.
VERDICT: WHO HOLDS THE ACE?
Today, APC holds the upper hand — not necessarily because it is universally loved, but because it appears more organized at this stage.
Uba Sani has incumbency, federal support, and a rebranded inclusive image. His opponents are dealing with internal divisions, limited resources, and ongoing reorganization.
Yet Kaduna has a history of punishing complacency. The voter in Rigasa worried about insecurity, the farmer in Soba worried about fertilizer price, and the student in ABU Zaria worried about school fees — they do not care about defection arithmetic. They will ask: Did my life improve?
If APC answers that question with projects and peace, it stands a strong chance. If not, even 2 million promised votes may become 2 million protest votes.
The battle for Kaduna has just begun.